Previously considered by many to be science fiction, we are now in an era where computers can incorporate events from the past with those currently occurring to create highly accurate predictive scenarios. This has supply chains investigating how they can use advanced tools and technologies to predict and rapidly respond to interruptions or challenges within the supply chain before they occur – an approach that’s been labeled as antifragility. 

In 2012, the term antifragility was originally introduced by Nasim Talen in Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. While the concept isn’t new, the process most organizations use for managing risk has yet to incorporate an antifragile technique. Instead, senior leaders and boards continue to maintain responsibility for establishing risk and resiliency strategies for their organizations. The challenge supply chain leaders face has been that these executive risk and resiliency strategies aren’t shared or communicated effectively, making it difficult for them to be developed or incorporated into tactical execution plans.  

Antifragility in the Supply Chain

With these competing challenges and priorities, how does an organization prepare itself to move toward antifragility in the supply chain? Below, we’ve outlined 9 key steps to better embed antifragility in the supply chain process.  

1. Identify and align the current executive and supply chain risk and resilience strategies  
2. At monthly IBP/S&OP meetings, integrate the evaluation of risk and resilience strategies into scenario planning and discussions to enable dynamic, cross-functional decision-making 
3. Calculate the ROI for supply chain investments, assessing the value of investing versus the probability of uncertainty 
4. Conduct planned and unplanned stress-tests to evaluate the robustness of the strategies 
5. Evaluate redundancies (e.g. inventory, capacity, multiple suppliers) as investment opportunities 
6. Assess the organization’s current digital and data analytics maturity state regarding the readiness to use, assess, and evaluate advanced data analytics, along with its ability to integrate high volumes of external data and leverage the capabilities of machine learning to develop predictive modeling  
7. Develop a digital and data analytics roadmap that plans for the integration of AI and ML 
8. Implement and educate the organization on the use and capabilities of advanced analytics and machine learning 
9. Establish clear monitoring and adjustment guidelines, policies, and measurements, which includes roles, responsibilities, responsiveness, accuracy, and adjustments along with when, why, who, and how to intervene if policies are breached or broken 

While robustness sustains today’s operations, antifragility, unlike a risk and resiliency strategy, is focused on not just withstanding the existing risks but also having strategies in place to respond to predictive risks. Antifragility benefits from companies’ ability to incorporate tools and systems that can accelerate the analysis and development of recommendations, positioning themselves so that rapid adjustments can be made.  

With antifragility in place, companies benefit from the ability to accelerate the analysis and development of recommendations. With the necessary tools and systems in place, companies can leverage antifragility to be more responsive and more effective in their responses to external risks or threats. As technology continues to evolve, it’s expected that systems will consistently learn and evolve, too. Therefore, the challenge organizations face is about how they will prepare themselves, their employees, and the technology for accepting and using AI and ML in their decision-making processes. Will they be prepared to accept the recommendations created by computers, or will they resist? 

The future belongs to those who prepare today. For expert guidance on developing and moving toward antifragility in the supply chain, contact our team. We offer comprehensive consulting services to help you with the integration of this model into your organization’s business and technology strategy. Reach out to Clarkston Consulting’s supply chain experts for personalized advice and turn your reactive plans into predictive and evolving models.